Area Forecast Discussion

266
FXUS63 KLSX 301123
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
523 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected into early next week.

- Temperatures will gradually warm up into the weekend, though by
  how much is uncertain.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Low clouds have finally moved out of the area early this morning,
though this will be short lived as satellite is showing additional
mid and high clouds dropping south out of the Upper Midwest.  These
clouds are associated with a subtle shortwave trough that is
embedded within the well established northwest flow over our area.
This trough will just bring an increase in clouds today with any
precipitation staying well to our northeast through tonight.

A weak surface ridge over the eastern Plains is approaching the area
which has allowed the winds to finally decrease.  We will still see
wind chills in the single digits this morning as lows fall into the
teens.  Then the winds will turn out of the west and then southwest
by this afternoon as the ridge moves through the area which will
allow temperatures to climb back into the 30s today.  Lows will fall
back into the 20s tonight.

Britt

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

The rest of the week into early next week looks to be mainly dry as
we will remain cut off the the Gulf with no significant storm
systems moving through Missouri or Illinois.   Model guidance is in
generally good agreement that the northwest flow overhead will
remain into the weekend as a deep low stays over the Hudson Bay.
However, the western CONUS ridge will deamplify bringing quasi-zonal
flow over the Midwest by early next week which is when the LREF is
showing a increasing spread in model solutions.  Even with this
spread, less than 15% of the LREF members are producing
precipitation over the area through next Tuesday.

The deterministic guidance is showing another trough moving through
the Great Lakes Wednesday night that will bring another cold front
through the CWA.  The cold air advection behind this front is not
strong, and highs Friday into Sunday will be similar to what they
were ahead of the front.  By next week, forecast highs are above
normal but the NBM IQR is 10 degrees or greater reflecting the above
mentioned spread.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 519 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
remain out of the southwest to west (200 to 290 degrees) at 10
knots or less.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion