Area Forecast Discussion
370
FXUS63 KLSX 140400
AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1000 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonable warm temperatures are expected through Saturday.
- There are signals for a wetter pattern to develop mid/late next
week, but details are highly uncertain.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025
Latest surface analysis shows a ridge east of the Mississippi
River early this afternoon. This feature will continue to push
eastward overnight, with southerly return flow gradually
increasing. The combination of increasing clouds and southerly
surface winds is expected to yield a mild night with lows only
dropping back into the mid 40s to low 50s. These values would be
about 10 degrees above normal for the date.
The first of two unseasonably warm days is expected on Friday. Low-
level warm air advection continues to increase throughout the day,
along with decreasing clouds and seasonably deep mixing (to near 850
hPa). This all points toward a warm day. High temperatures are
forecast to climb into the mid 70s. These values would be nearly 20
degrees above normal, though should fall at least a couple degrees
below records for the date.
Gosselin
&&
.LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025
(Friday Night - Saturday)
Unseasonable warmth will continue heading into early this weekend.
The air mass in place is very impressive, characterized by 850-hPa
temperatures of +17 to +19C (near daily records). A very warm start
to the day (lows in 50s to near 60 degrees) and surface winds
veering more to the west/southwest are also very favorable for
anomalous warmth. West/southwest flow downslopes off of the eastern
Ozarks, which could lead to highs maybe even approaching the 80
degree mark in eastern Missouri. A couple of limiting factors
mentioned yesterday still exist however, namely some mid/high level
clouds and more limited mixing (to near 875-900 hPa). Those two
factors are likely to prevent record highs (KSTL: 81F, KCOU: 78F,
KUIN: 75F) from occurring, but I wouldn`t rule it out either. A
favorable timing of the front and the aforementioned downslope winds
suggest at least the possibility that KSTL and KCOU may end up
threatening these records.
(Saturday Night - Sunday Night)
A period of cooler (and much drier) weather will move into the
region behind Saturday`s cold front. Precipitation chances
associated with the front look minimal given weak moisture return
ahead of the boundary and stronger mid/upper level forcing for
ascent staying well to our east/northeast. The LREF for reference
has
NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion