Ed's Weather Station

Ed's Weather Station
Located south of Fulton, MO
Lat. 38.75234 N
Lon. 91.96758 W
Elevation 787 ft

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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KLSX 200452

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1152 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Isolated to scattered storms have developed once again this
afternoon, with the higher coverage along an old outflow boundary
currently near a KKL>>KUIN line. Both these storms as well as the
isolated showers/storms further south should weaken and eventually
dissipate by late this evening with loss of daytime instability.

Precipitation coverage and timing  on Saturday will likely be
similar to the past 24-48 hours where isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms peak in coverage during the late afternoon
hours. Spatially, areas west of the Mississippi River will remain
favored for this primarily diurnally-driven convection. Any
thunderstorm that does occur however will have the capability of
producing brief heavy downpours.

There were concerns that Tropical Storm Imelda`s remnants may
possibly (directly) affect portions of the CWA Friday night, but
those possibilities appear to have waned. The NAM yesterday was the
outlier bringing widespread showers/storms to parts of the CWA but
has come more in line with the rest of the guidance which completely
dissipates Imelda`s remnants in Arkansas. Chances of showers and
storms do increase slightly late Friday night however as the
mid/upper level ridge continues to breakdown and shift to the

Seasonably warm conditions are forecast to continue over the next 24-
36 hours with little to no change in the ambient airmass. Low
temperatures both for tonight and Friday night are forecast to be in
the upper 60s to low 70s which is around 10 degrees above normal for
mid/late September. High temperatures on Friday will also be near
persistence values in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The one
exception is likely to be across portions of southeast Missouri
which should top out in the mid 80s due to increasing mid/high level


.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

(Saturday - Sunday Night)

The first in a series of midlevel disturbances is expected to travel
through northwestern Missouri Saturday morning. This will help force
a round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front, but the
focus will likely be northwest of the CWA closer to Kansas City and
Des Moines. Isolated to widely scattered diurnal storms are also
possible further east on Saturday afternoon/early evening across
much of the bi-state area.

The main period of concern continues to be from Saturday night
through Sunday night. The synoptic cold front will slowly near a
KCOU>>KUIN line by early Sunday morning and exit the CWA overnight
Sunday night. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with
this slow-moving cold front, aided by moderately strong low-level
moisture convergence and forcing for ascent associated with the
parent shortwave trough. Heavy, efficient rainfall remains the
concern due to very high precipitable water values (nearing 2.00
inches) and deep warm cloud depths. This efficiency combined with
the slow progression to the southeast of the cold front could yield
isolated flash flooding, most likely in parts of northeast Missouri
where the highest rainfall totals are likely to be located. In
addition to the flash flood potential, the Missouri River is likely
to observe renewed minor river flooding due to the combination of
this rainfall event along with elevated stages due to upstream dam
releases from Gavins Point. Outside of these potential problems, by
and large the 1-3" of rain over 1-2 days should be very beneficial
due to the very dry weather observed so far this month.

At least a brief period of drier and cooler weather is likely Monday
into early Tuesday behind the cold front. There is still a high
degree of uncertainty thereafter as the GFS is much more progressive
with a shortwave trough that moves out of the four corners region.
The ECMWF continues to close this system off and then cut it off
from the mean flow farther to the north. Consequently, this system
never really affects the mid-Mississippi Valley leaving our area dry
through the middle of the week. Continue to blend these two
different model solutions for now due to the high uncertainty which
results in another chance for showers and eventually thunderstorms
for Tuesday through next Thursday.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Little change from previous forecast. Quiet VFR conditions are
expected overnight and Friday will look fairly similar to
Thursday. The primary difference is that higher environmental
moisture will result in somewhat greater diurnal cumulus and
afternoon storm coverage. However, I still don`t expect cu to be
any more than scattered, and storms should generally remain
isolated. The exception is toward central MO, where storms may be
more scattered. Conditions will remain VFR through the period,
save for the few locations that do see storms.

Clouds and storm activity will diminish in the evening as mid and
upper level clouds begin to stream into the area ahead of greater
rain chances this weekend.






NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion