Ed's Weather Station

Ed's Weather Station
Located south of Fulton, MO
Lat. 38.75234 N
Lon. 91.96758 W
Elevation 787 ft

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Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for LSX NWS Office
FXUS63 KLSX 112120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
320 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 317 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The clipper centered over central Illinois will move rapidly east
late this afternoon and evening.  A strong pressure gradient between
the surface high building into the northern Plains and the clipper
is producing strong and gusty wind this afternoon.  Sustained wind
between 20-25kts with gusts to 35-40kts are being reported...and
Quincy actually came in with a 30G43kt report at 200 PM.  The strong
wind is expected to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon...but should diminish somewhat this evening as the
secondary cold front which is now over Iowa comes through the area.
The truly cold air is still up over Minnesota, but it should be down
into Missouri by Tuesday morning, so expect low temperatures to fall
into the 20s.  Light precipitation over Iowa associated with the
strong vort may graze our northern counties this evening with some
sprinkles or flurries before moving off to the east.  The
stratocumulus deck north of us will rotate down into the area
tonight...but should clear out by early Tuesday morning.  However
cold advection on Tuesday will likely limit the diurnal rise to only
10-15 degrees so highs should top out in the 30s in most locations.


.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

High amplitude pattern aloft will persist at least through the end
of the week with a strong upper level ridge over the West Coast and
a deep longwave trof over the East Coast.  This will keep the
Mississippi Valley in northwest flow aloft with at least 2 more
shortwaves diving through the region through Friday.  The surface
reflection of each shortwave will produce warm advection ahead of it
and cold advection behind it...continuing the roller coaster
temperatures for the region.  Unfortunately there looks to be little
if any relief from the ongoing drought with these systems as
moisture remains limited.

Medium range models are indicating a pattern shift this weekend.
Flow becomes more zonal on Saturday and then southwesterly Saturday
night as a shortwave moves through the central U.S.  The EC and GFS
differ on how fast and how strong the wave will be.  Given the lack
of agreement will stick with ensemble guidance for Saturday through
Monday which is pretty mild with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows
generally in the 30s.



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR ceilings and conditions will persist through 0z over the area.
An area of MVFR ceilings will move into north central and central
Missouri around 3z and push southeast through the region
overnight into early Tuesday morning. Winds will turn to the
northwest behind the trough and remain gusty through 11z before
slowly weakening Tuesday afternoon.


VFR ceilings and conditions will persist through 0z for the
terminal. MVFR ceilings will move over the terminal around 3z and
persist through early Tuesday morning. Winds will turn to the
northwest by 0z behind the trough and remain gusty before slowly
weakening Tuesday afternoon.



Issued at 317 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Relative humidity is bottoming out along and south of the Missouri
River at this time. Additionally, sustained west-northwest wind wind
above 15 mph is being reported across the area. These conditions
combined with very dry fuels are producing high fire danger so the
red flag warning will continue until 600 PM.



Saint Louis     25  36  27  51 /   5   0   5   0
Quincy          22  33  25  46 /  10   0   5   5
Columbia        23  37  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  24  39  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           25  34  22  45 /   5   0   0   0
Farmington      26  37  25  52 /   5   0   0   0


MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint
     Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Monroe IL-
     Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL.




NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion