Ed's Weather Station

Ed's Weather Station
Located south of Fulton, MO
Lat. 38.75234 N
Lon. 91.96758 W
Elevation 787 ft

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Callaway County Sheriff

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KLSX 011142
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
642 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

As expected, the morning is starting out pretty chilly. Temperatures
across the region were observed in the mid-40s to around 50 near
the top of the hour (09z). Surface winds have gone light and
variable or calmed under clear skies. Dewpoints in the upper 30s
to around 40 degrees only shows the potential for temperatures to
fall at least a few more degrees through sunrise. It`s definitely
a jacket kind of morning, as many will be walking out the door to
low to mid-40s by sunrise.

A cold front will drop down from the north between late morning and
mid-afternoon to reinforce the cooler airmass. This is also
accompanied by a shallow layer of mid-level moisture and a core of
increasing mid-level winds. The front will push through dry with an
increase in diurnal clouds, especially along and east of the
Mississippi River. Deep mixing will result in afternoon gusts of 25
to 30 mph, much like yesterday. The biggest difference will be the
cooler temperatures, which will make conditions feel a bit brisk.
Highs will span the 60s... low-60s north and upper 60s south.

Much of the moisture is pushed southeast along with the front later
this afternoon. Decreasing moisture and the end of diurnal heating
will trend toward clear skies this evening into tonight. Winds
lighten up fairly quickly overnight with surface high pressure
building in. There is ample opportunity for radiational cooling in
what is likely the coolest night of the fall thus far. Sections of
northeast Missouri will likely dip into the mid-30s where there is
the best potential for patchy frost. Other outlying areas may see
patch frost, but should be limited to the cooler valleys/lower
elevations. Lows area wide will range from the mid-30s to low-40s.

High pressure and northwesterly flow will keep conditions cool
through the day Friday. After the cool start, temperatures will not
even make it out of the 50s over northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois. Many areas to the south will struggle to make it into the
low 60s before the day ends.


Maples

.LONG TERM...  (Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Cooler than normal temperatures will extend into the first half of
the long term period. Chances for rain will likely dampen a portion
of the weekend. Beyond the weekend, a warming trend will begin to
materialize between the early and middle portion of next week.

Highs pressure will be overhead Friday night with mostly clear skies
and light winds. This is expected to result in another cool night,
but a touch warmer than Thursday night. Mid to high clouds are
likely to begin increasing from the northwest, well ahead of next
system. The timing and extent of the cloud cover will likely result
in cooler temperatures east of the Mississippi River with upper 30s
to near 40 degrees. Clouds aid to keep Missouri location slightly
warmer with low to mid-40s being the rule-of-thumb.

The surface high begins to slide off to the east with light
southerly surface flow kicking in ahead of the next system. As
mentioned over the last few days, this system drops down through the
northwesterly flow aloft, as a weak surface low begins to round the
base of the positively tilted upper trough. The system closes in on
western Missouri Saturday morning and near the Mississippi River by
early afternoon. There is somewhat of a broad area where shower
development may commence over central Missouri/northeast Missouri by
early afternoon. This is in the vicinity of the nose of a weakening
low level jet and mid-level warm air advection, along with
increasing moisture and lift. The latest ECM guidance continues to
solidify thoughts on limiting factors. This includes a less
organized surface low and weaker upper shortwave as it passes
overhead. While moisture transport is initially out of the
southwest, it quickly turns westerly and northwest with the passage
of the system Sunday morning. GEFS plumes and ensembles tend to
agree with a short 12 hour window or so for rain potential. Given
the limited time with deeper moisture, rainfall amounts will likely
line up between the operational runs and GEFS means, which range
from one-tenth to around one-quarter of an inch.

The surface low ejects northeast into the Great Lakes, east of the
quickly exiting upper trough. This drags a cold front through
behind the system late Sunday into Monday. Surface high pressure
builds in behind the front Monday. Upper flow goes quasi-zonal for
at least a brief period of time early in the week. As the surface
high exist and spans the eastern seaboard, it sets the stage for
southwesterly surface flow ahead of a weak cold front Tuesday. This
should allow temperatures to return to the 70s. Despite increasing
ensemble spread, the overall trend favors a continued warming trend
into the midweek period with deterministic guidance pushing into the
mid and upper 70s by Wednesday.


Maples

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Gusty winds will be the main impact in the period. As a cold front
drops south through the region this afternoon, winds will veer out
of the northwest as higher speeds aloft are mixed down through
the afternoon. Expect 20-25 knot gusts generally between 16z and
23z before windy conditions subside.

Few/scattered mid-level clouds are expected to develop as well.
However, moisture is limited and bases are expected to remain VFR
between 5k and 6k ft. Expect VFR to continue through the end of
the period.

Maples

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion