Ed's Weather Station

Ed's Weather Station
Located south of Fulton, MO
Lat. 38.75234 N
Lon. 91.96758 W
Elevation 787 ft

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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KLSX 032354

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Latest surface analysis and the fine line seen on radar indicates
that the cold front has moved into the western part of the St.
Louis metro area. Highs climbed into the upper 60s and lower 70s
ahead of the front today in the warm air advection with some
breaks in the clouds, but temperatures are falling quickly into
the 30s and 40s over central and western Missouri. There is also a
post-frontal band of rain that will continue to slowly move east
across the CWA late this afternoon into tonight as the upper
trough currently the Upper Midwest lifts northeast into the
Western Great Lakes at the same time the surface front moves into
the Tennessee Valley. Low tonight will range from around 30
degrees over northeast Missouri to the mid 40s over southeast
Missouri into south central Illinois.

Saturday will be a chilly day as clouds will linger through much
of the day, especially along and south of I-70. This along with
north winds and scattered showers continuing into the afternoon
over the southern CWA, have kept highs in the lower to mid 50s.

NAM/GFS is showing a weak storm system moving across the area on
Saturday night which will bring a slight chance of rain to the
area. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow night with
lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.


.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Latest runs of the GEFS and EPS still suggest that an low
amplitude upper ridge will move across the Missouri and Illinois
on Sunday at the same time that a surface high will move across
the area bringing at least one relatively dry day. Then expect
showers and scattered thunderstorms to return early next week
when a warm front will move north across the area on Monday
followed by a mid level trough with an attendant cold front that
will move across the Midwest on Tuesday night. Will need to
monitor these few days as the CIPS analogs is highlighting the
potential for severe weather during this days. Chances will be
lower by late Wednesday into Thursday as another ridge moves into
the area.

Temperatures are expected to gradually warm up Sunday into Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures warm from +5C to +15C. Temperatures will
cool down close to normal by next Thursday behind the cold front.
This is reflected well in the GEFS temperature plumes.



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

A strong cold front has cleared the terminals over the past few
hours and continues to push eastward. Winds have shifted to the
northwest, with some gusts to around 20 knots. Scattered rain
showers will impact the area tonight behind the front. Some of
these showers may briefly reduce visibilities to around 3-5SM. The
threat of rain should slowly move eastward tonight, with dry
weather favored late tonight through Saturday for much of the
region. The one exception is for portions of southeast Missouri
and southwest Illinois where rain chances continue through the
morning hours. Ceilings will also be on the decline from west to
east, with IFR conditions currently at KCOU and KUIN spreading
into the metro terminals over the next several hours. Some gradual
improvement is forecast late tonight through Saturday as lower
ceilings advect southward out of the area.


Northwest winds with gusts to around 20 knots will continue this
evening after the passage of a cold front. Scattered light rain
showers are forecast behind the front, with the best chances
tonight likely late this evening. Rain chances should end after
midnight tonight, with dry weather favored on Saturday.

Ceilings are forecast to lower to IFR thresholds after midnight
tonight. Conditions should slowly improve through Saturday
afternoon. By around 2000 UTC, VFR ceilings are forecast.






NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion